Welcome to this updated edition of the Top 50 Pitchers Kwindex Leaderboard.
You will find for every pitcher in the charts: their updated rank, their Kwindex, the Season Ranking Changes and a “Movement from the last leaderboard” column (Mov).
We are going to review them by tiers, so let’s start right away with the upper echelon:
- There is no visible threat to Shane Bieber’s Cy Young path, even with the expected ERA correction, it’ll still be around 2.00 and the smallest in MLB when the season ends. Giolito and Glasnow are good, but they are not Bieber good so let’s just give the award to him now and pretend that this season never happened for the rest of the AL pitchers.
- Yu Darvish and Jacob deGrom look like the sides of the same awesome coin; they will be 1-2 in the CY results for the NL; my guess goes to Yu as the winner.
- Yankees Twitter is losing it after Gerrit Cole’s three loses in a row and New York’s nosedive in general; his BB% keeps trending the wrong way, and he continues to allow HRs by the dozen, not good. He will be ranked 10-12 by the end of the regular season.
- Aaron Nola should be drafted everywhere next year. The NL will have a lot of great SPs so you might have the opportunity to draft him later while still carrying SP1 material with him.
Tier 2 is next:
This is the “Pitchers I will be drafting in 2021 as much as possible” tier.
- I picked Kevin Gausman from the FA stash in every league I am playing this season, and he’s been a treasure. Next year won’t be as cheap but will still be very affordable.
- Dinelson Lamet is the other 2-pitches hurler I will surely draft. His control has improved more and more with every start and that separates him from other limited-pitches players.
- Luis Castillo and Zach Eflin complete my personal choices from this tier; the rest have too much star powder which will inflate their ADPs.
- As for the rest of this season, Zach Eflin is the one with the highest Return Of Investment possibilities, apart from Trevor Bauer in this tier, he is the one with the highest (k-bb)/ip and only trails Scherzer and Snell in F-Strike%.
Next, the third tier:
This has turned into the fall back tier. Gallen, Paddack , Heany and Valdéz are showing signs of correction which is normal and expected.
- Sure HoFer Zack Greinke is on track to finish the season as a Top 20 pitcher, again; talk about reliability there.
- I was expecting Valdéz to consolidate his K% but on the contrary, he has stopped strucking out batters with consistency. He is on hold for the ROS and for 2021 drafting purposes.
- A big issue with this season is the obvious short length problem: a lot of people will take at face value what the players achieve, forgetting that baseball is a game of streaks and ratios. That’s the case with Chris Paddack: he’s had rough moments (basically 3 games with 4-6 ER) and good ones but the results are mostly impacted by the bad ones; his peripherals suggest he would be bound to better numbers, namely a great (k-bb)/ip, good pCRA, and a freakish strike zone dominance, but he won’t have the time for that this regular season. He is a must draft next year even when probably his ADP will be impacted because he’ll thrive in the postseason.
Next and final tier:
- While writing this, Corin Burnes has finished pitching 7 innings of one-hit ball, 11 Ks, and no walks, these numbers are not taken into account for this leaderboard. I think I don’t need to add too much, though.
- Josh Lindblom had his regular start skipped as the Brewers had no need for a fifth starter this week. He is on hold for now but I still believe in his upside for next year.
- I’m buying on Tyler Mahle, keep an eye on him, his CSW is climbing to great levels, and we already know this is a good estimator of future performance.
- I’m not concerned about Jesús Luzardo, his recent struggles are expected as a rookie, he’s got the raw material and will be a great option for 2021.
Next week we’ll update the leaderboard and check on how things look for the rest of the way.
Here is the complete table with complementary information: (k-bb)/ip, CSW, K%-BB%, pCRA, ERA, Zone%, F-Strike%, Kwindex.
All data used was taken from https://www.fangraphs.com/, https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/, and/or https://www.baseball-reference.com/, unless otherwise stated different. pCRA data was taken from this Tableau, maintained by its creator Connor Kurcon.
EE, Data geek, Baseball fan. Twitter: @camarcano